SHIPPENSBURG, Thursday, Dec. 15 –Everyone is dreaming of a white Christmas but the chance of snow this year is just one in three.

According to Dr. Timothy W. Hawkins, associate professor and interim chair of Shippensburg University’s geography-earth science department, an analysis he did with student Justin May found that just 21 of 63 or 33 percent of Christmases since 1948 have been white.

They defined a white Christmas as when either snow falls on Christmas day or there is at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day from a previous storm. Snow was recorded on Christmas day itself just eight of those years with a maximum snowfall of 5.5 inches in 2002. The deepest snow depth on Christmas day from a previous storm was 13 inches in 1951.

It has rained 15 out of 63 or 24 percent of Christmases. Two of the rain years were also classified as white Christmases due to existing snow on the ground. The 1960s was the decade with the most white Christmases with six out of 10 years recording snow.

The average high and low temperatures on Christmas day since 1948 are 38°F and 23°F respectively. The record warmest and coldest Christmas temperatures during this time are 63°F  in 1955 and -6°F in 1983, respectively.

“According to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, we are likely to experience above average temperatures and normal precipitation around Christmas time this year,” Hawkins said. “This suggests a lower chance for a white Christmas in 2011.”